The Colcom Foundation has assembled a detailed historical record of how U.S. environmental conditions have evolved alongside population change since 1970. That record, the foundation argues, makes one pattern unmistakable: efforts to shrink the country’s ecological footprint have been outpaced, decade after decade, by a growing number of people.
In 1970, the U.S. population stood at 205 million, the total fertility rate was 2.54, and biocapacity consumption was already at 227 percent. North American birds numbered around ten billion. By 1972, the country had achieved a total fertility rate below 2.1 the replacement level largely through expanded access to reproductive health resources and family planning. That milestone meant, in theory, that domestic births alone would eventually stabilize population.
The Immigration Turning Point
But by 1990, immigration had become the main driver of population growth. The U.S. population had already added 45 million people since 1970, biocapacity consumption had risen to 237 percent, and roughly 133,000 square miles of land had been converted to human-made surfaces. Between 1990 and 2000, another 32 million people were added, and biocapacity consumption jumped sharply to 267 percent. Land conversion continued: 156,000 square miles by 2000, then over 187,000 by 2020.
The wildlife toll accumulated alongside these numbers. By 2020, North American wildlife populations had declined 20 percent since 1970, 1,300 U.S. species were listed under the Endangered Species Act, and 23 species were proposed for delisting due to extinction in 2021. Bird populations had fallen from ten billion to 7.1 billion over the same period.
Colcom Foundation’s Future Outlook
Looking ahead, the Colcom Foundation sees immigration policy as the decisive variable. According to Pew Research figures the foundation cites, immigration will account for 103 million of the 110 million people added to the U.S. by 2065. The foundation argues this trajectory is incompatible with meeting Paris Climate Agreement targets, preserving native species, or keeping land use within sustainable bounds. Its grantmaking reflects that analysis, funding both immigration policy research and direct conservation work. Refer to this article for related information.
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